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February 05, 2008

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Otis Jefferson Brown

Howard Dean says if there’s still a delegate deadlock this spring, he’ll avoid a brokered convention by bringing Clinton and Obama together to come to an “arrangement.” Is he serious? What is an “arrangement” but a brokered backroom deal? The next time I want to flee reality, I’d like to score a kilo of whatever it is Dr. Dean is smoking.

Dr. M. and readers of this blague, please tell me: How is this Clinton-Obama race going to end?

Otis Jefferson Brown

What a night, what a race, what a political year! My earliest political memory is seeing FDR in his only campaign appearance of the 1944 campaign, a rain-soaked motorcade through NYC (my father held me aloft so I could see FDR go by) - and I’ve been a political junkie ever since the 1948 Truman-Dewey race – but I’ve never seen anything as exciting and unpredictable as this.

A few observations and questions (from an admittedly pro-Obama point of view):

1. Early exit polls are useless.

2. Zogby blew it big-time in his CA polling – though it remains to be seen how much of HRC’s edge was due to early mail-in votes.

3. The HRC camp has to be happy about preventing any major surprises in MA, NJ and CA.

4. Obama showed he can win white votes.

5. HRC’s successes were mainly in solid blue states, where any Dem should/will win in November. BO showed strength in red/purple states – especially Missouri - where the Dems must break through in order to become a truly national party again. Will this carry weight with the superdelegates?

6. Will the superdelegates decide this whole thing? I keep reading and hearing of deep hostility toward the Clintons among D.C. establishment Democrats, from Kerry, Kennedy and Gore on down. Will the superdelegates swing to Obama? Will Gore endorse?

7. I still think that Obama is the Democrats’ best bet to enlarge the party by bringing in new voters, independents and ex-Republicans - and that the best, most electable ticket in November would be Obama-Webb.


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